National Polls Are Tightening, But State Polls Tell A Different Story

We are nine weeks from the November 8th, and national polls are showing that the race is getting tighter.

  • A CNN/ORC poll even has Trump leading by two points, 45 to 43.
  • The RealClearPolitics polling average shows that Clinton’s previous 8 to 10 point lead from last month has gone down to a 4 point lead.

But, don’t let the national polls fool you. The race is getting somewhat tighter, but the state polls show that Hillary is clearly still leading.




A huge new 50 state Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll, which had over 74,000 responses, breaks it down state-by-state. The race is significantly tighter in the upper Midwest since Trump is catching up there, but Clinton has the electoral college advantage because of her strength in the battleground states.

  • Clinton has a 4 point or more lead in 20 states and D.C., and Trump has a 4 point or more lead in 20 states too.
  • But, Clinton has the states which have more electoral votes: 244 to Trump’s 126.
  • That means Clinton has the clear lead, and is only 26 votes short of the 270 needed to win.

The survey conducted by The Washington Post/Survey Monkey shows that Trump’s big weakness as a Republican is among college-educated white voters, particularly women. He also struggles in the traditional Republican strongholds of Arizona and Georgia, but more surprisingly–he may even lose Texas, which has been Republican for decades! In Texas, where 5,000 were surveyed, Clinton is leading, by 1 point.

If Trump wants to win, he needs to bring Republican states and people back together. But, that will be difficult as he alienates the educated and female voters, and more prominent Republicans denounce him and publicly declare their support for Hillary each week.




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