Trump vs Clinton heads into the final stretch, does the Donald still have a chance?

Hillary Clinton is widening the gap in the polls, extending her lead over Donald Trump.

The major difference in recent polling is the dramatic increase in electoral college votes classed as toss ups, with Donald Trump losing much of his likely votes to that category.

Trump trails Clinton now and would need 144 more projected electoral votes, she only needs 8 to win. The gap is widening against the New York businessman.

There is less than one month before the election, on November 8th, 2016.

How solid is the lead for the democratic candidate in the 50 states?

  • Hillary Clinton is currently predicted a 96 percent chance of winning.
  • She is ahead nationwide by 5.5 percent on average.
  • In the 50 states of the USA, Hillary counts now 256 (predicted) electoral votes –  just 14 less than needed to become the next president of the United States (270) – while Trump tails with just 170 (counting the expected solid, likely and lean voting in these states).
  • This gap even widens in the toss and swing states with Clinton in lead there as well. There the two candidates fight over the last 112 toss ups. Trump would need almost all of them (100), Clinton just 14 more. It looks like a mission impossible for the Republican candidate.

These are the latest nation wide polling data from nine sources:

(from the 13th to 23rd of October, 2016)

Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
 Spread
Average 10/13 – 10/23 — — 47.8 42.3 Clinton +5.5
CNN/ORC 10/20 – 10/23 779 LV 3.5 51 45 Clinton +6
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/18 – 10/23 815 LV 3.6 42 42 Tie
LA Times/USC Tracking 10/17 – 10/23 3024 LV 4.5 45 44 Clinton +1
ABC News Tracking 10/20 – 10/22 874 LV 3.5 53 41 Clinton +12
Quinnipiac 10/17 – 10/18 1007 LV 3.1 50 44 Clinton +6
Economist/YouGov 10/15 – 10/18 925 RV 3.9 47 43 Clinton +4
FOX News 10/15 – 10/17 912 LV 3.0 49 42 Clinton +7
Bloomberg 10/14 – 10/17 1006 LV 3.1 50 41 Clinton +9
Reuters/Ipsos 10/13 – 10/17 1190 LV 3.3 43 39 Clinton +4

 

With a voting majority each candidate gets all electoral college votes in a state.

Here is the latest breakdown of the electoral college votes in the 50 states:

 

 

The current electoral college picture as it stands:

  • Clinton has 115 solid votes, 40 likely votes, and 101 leaning votes for a total of 262, just 8 less than needed to become the next president of the United States.
  • Trump has 49 solid votes, 41 likely votes, and 36 leaning votes for a total of 126. He would need 144 more votes to win.
  • The candidates fight over the last 150 toss ups.

While some states are perennial toss ups like Arizona and Iowa, the most important are the so called swing-states or battle-ground states, where historically it is unclear whether a Republican or Democratic candidate will win the large number of electoral votes on offer.

In New Hampshire’s case, it is the early voting momentum which gives this state such importance, despite its relatively small number of electoral college votes.

  • The four swing-states are Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Nevada – with 29, 18, 15 and 6 delegates respectively.
  • Below are the latest polls in these states.
  • They show that Clinton leads in three states between 2.1 to 4.7 percent and would gain 50 electoral college votes.
  • Trump still has a tiny lead in Ohio of merely 0.6 percent. He would get 18 electoral college votes from Ohio.
  • As of today his chances to win the 144 needed votes are slim to none.
State Clinton Trump Average  Status
Florida (29) 47.0 43.2 Clinton +3.8 Toss Up
Ohio (18) 44.0 44.6 Trump +0.6 Toss Up
North Carolina (15) 46.1 44.0 Clinton +2.1 Toss Up
Nevada (6) 46.0 41.3 Clinton +4.7 Toss Up

 

However, Trump is having a tough time accepting the polls, as usual:

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