Why the next president of the USA will be a woman- the polls tell

The next president of the United States of America will be a woman. 

This is the result of a fact finding of GLOBALO, looking into the preference of voters.

Trump trails Clinton now and would need 100 more electoral votes, she only needs 14 to win. The gap is widening against the New York businessman.

Less than one month before the election dated November 8th, 2016.

How solid is the lead for the democratic candidate in the 50 states?

  • Hillary Clinton is currently predicted a 92 percent chance of winning.
  • She is ahead nationwide by 6.9 percent on average.
  • In the 50 states of the USA, Hillary counts now 262 (predicted) electoral votes –  just 8 less than needed to become the next president of the United States (270) – while Trump trails with just 126 (counting the expected solid, likely and lean voting in these states).
  • This gap widens further in the toss up and swing states with Clinton in lead there as well. There, the two candidates fight over the last 150 toss ups. It looks like mission impossible for the Republican candidate.

These are the latest nation wide polling data from nine sources:

(from the 6th to 17th of October, 2016)

Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
 Spread
Average 10/6 – 10/17 — — 48.9 42.0 Clinton +6.9
FOX News 10/15 – 10/17 912 LV 3.0 49 42 Clinton +7
LA Times/USC Tracking 10/11 – 10/17 2983 LV 4.5 43 45 Trump +2
CBS News 10/12 – 10/16 1189 LV 3.0 51 40 Clinton +11
Monmouth 10/14 – 10/16 726 LV 3.6 53 41 Clinton +12
NBC News/SM 10/10 – 10/16 24804 LV 1.0 51 43 Clinton +8
ABC News/Wash Post 10/10 – 10/13 740 LV 4.0 50 46 Clinton +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/10 – 10/13 905 LV 3.3 51 41 Clinton +10
Economist/YouGov 10/7 – 10/8 971 RV 4.2 48 43 Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos 10/6 – 10/10 2363 LV 2.2 44 37 Clinton +7

 

With a voting majority each candidate gets all electoral college votes in a state.

Here is the latest breakdown of the electoral college votes in the 50 states:

 

 

The current electoral college picture as it stands:

  • Clinton has 115 solid votes, 54 likely votes, and 93 leaning votes for a total of 262, just 8 less than needed to become the next president of the United States.
  • Trump has 49 solid votes, 41 likely votes, and 80 leaning votes for a total of 170. He would need 100 more votes to win.
  • The candidates fight over the last 112 toss ups.

While some states are perennial toss ups like Arizona and Iowa, the most important are the so called swing-states or battle-ground states, where historically it is unclear whether a Republican or Democratic candidate will win the large number of electoral votes on offer.

In New Hampshire’s case, it is the early voting momentum which gives this state such importance, despite its relatively small number of electoral college votes.

  • The four traditional swing-states are Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire – with 29, 18, 15 and 4 delegates respectively.
  • Below are the latest polls in these states.
  • They show that Clinton leads in three states between 2.7 to 3.6 percent and would gain 48 electoral college votes.
  • Trump still has a tiny lead in Ohio of merely 0.7 percent. He would get 18 electoral college votes from Ohio.
  • Until today his chances to win the 100 needed votes are slim. Clinton even would get more (48 to 18) and thus widen the gap between her leading and Trump.
State Clinton Trump Average Status
Florida (29) 46.4 42.8 Clinton +3.6 Toss Up
Ohio (18) 43.8 44.5 Trump +0.7 Toss Up
North Carolina (15) 46.0 43.3 Clinton +2.7 Toss Up
New Hampshire (4) 43.3 39.7 Clinton +3.6 Toss Up

 

The Washington Post published the latest results of the Survey Monkey poll October 18, 2016:

  • In the 15 so called battleground states Clinton would get 304 electoral votes.
  • Trump will gain only 138 votes.
  • Still 96 votes are in toss-up, including Florida, Ohio and Texas.

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